.
에서 스티브 잡스와 빌 게이츠를 초대해서 대담을 나누었습니다. PC와 소프트웨어 산업의 역사부터, 창업 이후의 이야기, 그리고 IT 산업의 미래에 대하여 이야기를 나눕니다.
프롤로그를 제외하고 총 7부로 구성되어있습니다.
Following is a transcript of the interview Kara Swisher and Walt
Mossberg conducted with Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates and Apple CEO
Steve Jobs at the D5 conference on May 30, 2007.
[Video plays]
Kara: Well, thank you.
Walt: Before we get started, there were some
pioneers–of course, we have the pioneers here on the stage, but there
were some other really important pioneers in the video we just saw and
a couple of them are here in the audience. Mitch Kapor, who is a
regular, could you just stand up, wherever you are? There he is.
[Applause]
Walt: And Fred Gibbons, who has not come to D before, but is here tonight. Fred. There’s Fred right there.
[Applause]
Walt: And I don’t know if he’s in the room, but I
do want to recognize our fellow journalist, Brent Schlender from
Fortune, who, to my knowledge, did the last joint interview these guys
did. It was not onstage, but it was Fortune magazine. Brent, I don’t
know if you’re in the room. If you are, can you stand? Maybe he’s way
over there.
[Applause]
Kara: So let’s get started. I wanted to ask,
there’s been a lot of mano-a-mano/catfight kind of thing in a lot of
the blogs and the press and stuff like that, and we wanted to–the first
question I was interested in asking is what you think each has
contributed to the computer and technology industry, starting with you,
Steve, for Bill, and vice versa.
Steve: Well, you know, Bill built the first
software company in the industry and I think he built the first
software company before anybody really in our industry knew what a
software company was, except for these guys. And that was huge. That
was really huge. And the business model that they ended up pursuing
turned out to be the one that worked really well, you know, for the
industry. I think the biggest thing was, Bill was really focused on
software before almost anybody else had a clue that it was really the
software.
Kara: Was important?
Steve: That’s what I see. I mean, a lot of other
things you could say, but that’s the high order bit. And I think
building a company’s really hard, and it requires your greatest
persuasive abilities to hire the best people you can and keep them at
your company and keep them working, doing the best work of their lives,
hopefully. And Bill’s been able to stay with it for all these years.
Walt: Bill, how about the contribution of Steve and Apple?
Bill: Well, first, I want to clarify: I’m not Fake Steve Jobs.
What Steve’s done is quite phenomenal, and if you look back to 1977,
that Apple II computer, the idea that it would be a mass-market
machine, you know, the bet that was made there by Apple uniquely–there
were other people with products, but the idea that this could be an
incredible empowering phenomenon, Apple pursued that dream.
Then one of the most fun things we did was the Macintosh and that
was so risky. People may not remember that Apple really bet the
company. Lisa hadn’t done that well, and some people were saying that
general approach wasn’t good, but the team that Steve built even within
the company to pursue that, even some days it felt a little ahead of
its time–I don’t know if you remember that Twiggy disk drive and…
Steve: One hundred twenty-eight K.
Kara: Oh, the Twiggy disk drive, yes.
Bill: Steve gave a speech once, which is one of my
favorites, where he talked about, in a certain sense, we build the
products that we want to use ourselves. And so he’s really pursued that
with incredible taste and elegance that has had a huge impact on the
industry. And his ability to always come around and figure out where
that next bet should be has been phenomenal. Apple literally was
failing when Steve went back and re-infused the innovation and
risk-taking that have been phenomenal. So the industry’s benefited
immensely from his work. We’ve both been lucky to be part of it, but
I’d say he’s contributed as much as anyone.
Steve: We’ve also both been incredibly lucky to
have had great partners that we started the companies with and we’ve
attracted great people. I mean, so everything that’s been done at
Microsoft and at Apple has been done by just remarkable people, none of
which are sitting up here today.
Kara: Well, not us.
Walt: Not us. So in a way, you’re the stand-ins for all those other people.
Steve: Yeah, in a way, we are. In a very tangible way.
Walt: So Bill mentioned the Apple II and 1977 and
30 years ago. And there were a couple of other computers which were
aimed at the idea that average people might be able to use them, and
looking back on it, a really average-average person might not have been
able to use them by today’s standards, but it certainly broadened the
base of who could use computers.
I actually looked at an Apple ad from 1978. It was a print ad. That
shows you how ancient it was. And it said, thousands of people have
discovered the Apple computer. Thousands of people. And it also said,
you don’t want to buy one of these computers where you put a cartridge
in. I think that was a reference to one of the Atari or something.
Steve: Oh, no.
Walt: You want a computer you can write your own programs on. And obviously, people still do.
Steve: We had some very strange ads back then. We
had one where it was in a kitchen and there was a woman that looked
like the wife and she was typing in recipes on the computer with the
husband looking on approvingly in the back. Stuff like that.
Walt: How did that work for you?
Steve: I don’t think well.
Walt: I know you started Microsoft prior to 1977. I think Apple started the year before, in ‘76.
Steve: ‘76.
Walt: Microsoft in …
Bill: ‘74 was when we started writing BASIC. Then we shipped the BASIC in ‘75.
Walt: Some people here, but I don’t think most
people, know that there was actually some Microsoft software in that
Apple II computer. You want to talk about what happened there, how that
occurred?
Bill: Yeah. There had been the Altair and a few
other companies–actually, about 24–that had done various machines, but
the ‘77 group included the PET, TRS-80 …
Walt: Commodore?
Bill: Yeah, the Commodore PET, TRS-80 and the Apple
II. The original Apple II BASIC, the Integer BASIC, we had nothing to
do with. But then there was a floating-point one where–and I mostly
worked with Woz on that.
Steve: Let me tell the story. My partner we started
out with, this guy named Steve Wozniak. Brilliant, brilliant guy. He
writes this BASIC that is, like, the best BASIC on the planet. It does
stuff that no other BASIC’s ever done. You don’t have to run it to find
your error messages. It finds them when you type it in and stuff. It’s
perfect in every way, except for one thing, which is it’s just
fixed-point, right? It’s not floating-point.
So we’re getting a lot of input that people want this BASIC to be
floating-point. And, like, we’re begging Woz, please, please make this
floating point.
Walt: Who’s we? How many people are in Apple?
Steve: Well, me. We’re begging Woz to make this
floating-point and he just never does it. You know, and he wrote it by
hand on paper. I mean, you know, he didn’t have an assembler or
anything to write it with. It was all just written on paper and he’d
type it in. He just never got around to making it floating-point.
Kara: Why?
Steve: This is one of the mysteries of life. I
don’t know, but he never did. So, you know, Microsoft had this very
popular, really good floating-point BASIC that we ended up going to
them and saying “help.”
Walt: And how much was the–I think you were telling us earlier …
Bill: Oh, it was $31,000.
Walt: That Apple paid you for the …
Bill: For the floating-point BASIC. And I flew out
to Apple, I spent two days there getting the cassette. The cassette
tapes were the main ways that people stored things at the time, right?
And, you know, that was fun.
I think the most fun is later when we worked together.
Walt: What was the most fun? Tell the story about the most fun that was later.
Kara: Or maybe later, not the most fun.
Walt: Let them talk.
Kara: Teasing.
Bill: Well, you know, Steve can probably start it
better. The team that was assembled there to do the Macintosh was a
very committed team. And there was an equivalent team on our side that
just got totally focused on this activity. Jeff Harbers, a lot of
incredible people. And we had really bet our future on the Macintosh
being successful, and then, hopefully, graphics interfaces in general
being successful, but first and foremost, the thing that would
popularize that being the Macintosh.
So we were working together. The schedules were uncertain. The
quality was uncertain. The price. When Steve first came up, it was
going to be a lot cheaper computer than it ended up being, but that was
fine.
Kara: So you worked in both places?
Bill: Well, we were in Seattle and we’d fly down there.
Walt: But Microsoft, if I remember correctly from
what I’ve read, wasn’t Microsoft one of the few companies that were
allowed to even have a prototype of the Mac at the time?
Steve: Yeah. What’s interesting, what’s hard to
remember now is that Microsoft wasn’t in the applications business
then. They took a big bet on the Mac because this is how they got into
the apps business. Lotus dominated the apps business on the PC back
then.
Bill: Right. We’d done just MultiPlan, which was a
hit on the Apple II, and then Mitch did an incredible job betting on
the IBM PC and 1-2-3 came in and, you know, ruled that part of the
business. So the question was, what was the next paradigm shift that
would allow for an entry? We had Word, but WordPerfect was by far the
strongest in word processing dBase database.
Walt: And Word was kind of a DOS text …
Bill: All of these products I’m saying were DOS-based products.
Walt: Right.
Bill: Because Windows wasn’t in the picture at the time.
Walt: Right.
Bill: That’s more early ’90s that we get to that.
So we made this bet that the paradigm shift would be graphics interface
and, in particular, that the Macintosh would make that happen with 128K
of memory, 22K of which was for the screen buffer, 14K was for the
operating system. So it was …
Walt: 14K?
Bill: Yeah.
Walt: The original Mac operating system was 14K?
Bill: 14K that we had to have loaded when our software ran. So when the shell would come up, it had all the 128K.
Steve: The OS was bigger than 14K. It was in the 20s somewhere.
Walt: I see.
Steve: We ship these computers now with, you know, a gigabyte, 2 gigabytes of memory, and nobody remembers 128K.
Walt: I remember that. I remember paying a lot of
money for computers with 128K in those days. So the two companies
worked closely on the Mac project because you were maybe not the only,
but the principal or one of the principal software creators for it, is
that right?
Steve: Well, Apple did the Mac itself, but we got
Bill and his team involved to write these applications. We were doing a
few apps ourselves. We did MacPaint, MacDraw and stuff like that, but
Bill and his team did some great work.
Kara: Now, in terms of moving forward after you
left and your company grew more and more strong, what did you think was
going to happen to Apple after sort of the disasters that occurred
after Steve left?
Bill: Well, Apple, they hung in the balance. We
continued to do Macintosh software. Excel, which Steve and I introduced
together in New York City, that was kind of a fun event, that went on
and did very well. But then, you know, Apple just wasn’t
differentiating itself well enough from the higher-volume platform.
Walt: Meaning Windows, right?
Bill: DOS and Windows.
Walt: Okay. But especially Windows in the ’90s began to take off.
Bill: By 1995, Windows became popular. The big
debate wasn’t sort of Mac versus Windows. The big debate was character
mode interface versus graphics mode interface. And when the 386 came
and we got more memory and the speed was adequate and some development
tools came along, that paradigm bet on GUI paid off for everybody who’d
gotten in early and said, you know, this is the way that’s going to go.
Walt: But Apple wasn’t able to leverage its products?
Bill: After the 512K Mac was done, the product line
just didn’t evolve as fast–Steve wasn’t there–as it needed to. And we
were actually negotiating a deal to invest and make some commitments
and things with Gil Amelio. No, seriously.
Kara: Don’t be mean to him.
Bill: I’m sorry?
Kara: Just saying the word Gil Amelio, you can see his…
Bill: So I was calling him up on the weekend and
all this stuff and next thing I knew, Steve called me up and said,
don’t worry about that negotiation with Gil Amelio. You can just talk
to me now. And I said, “Wow.”
Steve: Gil was a nice guy, but he had a saying. He
said, “Apple is like a ship with a hole in the bottom leaking water and
my job is to get the ship pointed in the right direction.”
Walt: Meanwhile, through all this–I want to get
back to the thing we saw in 1997 at Macworld there–but Windows was just
going great guns. I mean, Windows 95, to whatever extent earlier
versions of Windows had not had all the features, all the GUI stuff
that the Mac had, and Windows 95 really was an enormous, enormous leap.
Bill: Yeah. Windows 95 is when graphics interface
became mainstream and when the software industry realized, wow, this is
the way applications are going to be done. And it was amazing that it
was ridiculed sort of in ‘93, ‘94, was not mainstream, and then in ‘95,
the debate was over. It was kind of just a commonsense thing. And it
was a combination of hardware and software maturity getting to a point
that people could see it.
Walt: So I don’t want to go through every detail, the whole history of how you came back, but…
Steve: Thank you.
Walt: But you in that video we all saw, you said
you had decided that it was destructive to have this competition with
Microsoft. Now, obviously, Apple was in a lot of trouble and I presume
that there was some tactical or strategic reason for that, as well as
just wanting to be a nice guy, right?
Steve: You know, Apple was in very serious trouble.
And what was really clear was that if the game was a zero-sum game
where for Apple to win, Microsoft had to lose, then Apple was going to
lose. But a lot of people’s heads were still in that place.
Kara: Why was that, from your perspective?
Steve: Well, a lot of people’s heads were in that
place at Apple and even in the customer base because, you know, Apple
had invented a lot of this stuff and Microsoft was being successful and
Apple wasn’t and there was jealousy and this and that. There was just a
lot of reasons for it that don’t matter.
But the net result of it was, was there were too many people at
Apple and in the Apple ecosystem playing the game of, for Apple to win,
Microsoft has to lose. And it was clear that you didn’t have to play
that game because Apple wasn’t going to beat Microsoft. Apple didn’t
have to beat Microsoft. Apple had to remember who Apple was because
they’d forgotten who Apple was.
So to me, it was pretty essential to break that paradigm. And it was
also important that, you know, Microsoft was the biggest software
developer outside of Apple developing for the Mac. So it was just crazy
what was happening at that time. And Apple was very weak and so I
called Bill up and we tried to patch things up.
Bill: And since that time, we’ve had a team that’s
fairly dedicated to doing the Mac applications and they’ve always been
treated kind of in a unique way so that they can have a pretty special
relationship with Apple. And that’s worked out very well. In fact,
every couple years or so, there’s been something new that we’ve been
able to do on the Mac and it’s been a great business for us.
Steve: And it’s actually–the relationship between
the Mac development team at Microsoft and Apple is a great
relationship. It’s one of our best developer relationships.
Kara: And do you look at yourselves as rivals now?
Today as the landscape has evolved–and we’ll talk about the Internet
landscape and everything else and other companies that have [gone]
forward, but how do you look at yourselves in this landscape today?
Walt:Because, I mean, you are competitors in certain ways, which is the American way, right?
Kara: We watch the commercials, right?
Walt: And you get annoyed at each other from time to time.
Kara: Although you know what? I have to confess, I like PC guy.
Walt: Yeah, he’s great.
Kara: Yeah, I like him. The young guy, I want to pop him.
Steve: The art of those commercials is not to be
mean, but it’s actually for the guys to like each other. Thanks. PC guy
is great. Got a big heart.
Bill: His mother loves him.
Steve: His mother loves him.
Kara: I’m telling you, I like PC guy totally much better.
Steve: Wow.
Kara: I do. I don’t know why. He’s endearing. The other guy’s a jackass.
Steve: PC guy’s what makes it all work, actually.
Walt: All right.
Steve: It’s worth thinking about.
Kara: So how do you look at yourselves?
Walt: I mean, let me just ask you, Bill. Obviously,
Microsoft is a much larger company, you’re in many more markets, many
more types of products than Apple is. You know, when you were running
the company or when Steve Ballmer is running the company, you think
obviously about Google, you think about, I don’t know, Linux in the
enterprise, you think about Sony in the game area. How often is Apple
on your radar screen at Microsoft in a business sense?
Bill: Well, they’re on the radar screen as an
opportunity. In a few cases like the Zune, if you go over to that
group, they think of Apple as a competitor. They love the fact that
Apple’s created a gigantic market and they’re going to try and come in
and contribute something to that.
Steve: And we love them because they’re all customers.
Walt: I have to tell you, I was actually told by J
Allard, I’m serious, that because of the nature of the processor, the
development platform they used to develop a lot of the software for the
Xbox 360 was Macs. And he claimed that at one point, they had, like,
placed the biggest order for whatever the Mac tower was at the time of
anybody, and it was Microsoft.
Bill: I don’t know if it was the biggest, but,
yeah, we had the same processor essentially that the Mac had. This is
one of those great ironies is they were switching away from that
processor while the Xbox 360 was adopting it. But for good reasons,
actually, in both cases. Because we’re not in a portable application
and that was one of the things that that processor road map didn’t
have. But yes, it shows pragmatism, but we try and do things that way.
So that was the development system for the early people getting their
software ready for the introduction of Xbox 360.
Steve: And we never ran an ad on that.
Walt: I see. Admirable restraint. That’s wonderful restraint.
Steve: There were hundreds of them.
Bill: Steve is so known for his restraint.
Kara: How do you look at Microsoft from an Apple perspective? I mean, you compete in computers and…
Walt: I mean, you can say you don’t compete, you
know, the era of destructive whatever, whatever you said in 1997, but
you think–you’re consciously aware of what they’re doing with Windows,
you followed Vista closely, I think.
Steve: You know, what’s really interesting is–and
we talked about this earlier today–if you look at the reason that the
iPod exists and the Apple’s in that marketplace, it’s because these
really great Japanese consumer electronics companies who kind of own
the portable music market, invented it and owned it, couldn’t do the
appropriate software, couldn’t conceive of and implement the
appropriate software. Because an iPod’s really just software. It’s
software in the iPod itself, it’s software on the PC or the Mac, and
it’s software in the cloud for the store. And it’s in a beautiful box,
but it’s software. If you look at what a Mac is, it’s OS X, right? It’s
in a beautiful box, but it’s OS X. And if you look at what an iPhone
will hopefully be, it’s software.
And so the big secret about Apple, of course–not-so-big secret
maybe–is that Apple views itself as a software company and there aren’t
very many software companies left, and Microsoft is a software company.
And so, you know, we look at what they do and we think some of it’s
really great, and we think a little bit of it’s competitive and most of
it’s not. You know, we don’t have a belief that the Mac is going to
take over 80% of the PC market. You know, we’re really happy when our
market share goes up a point and we love that and we work real hard at
it, but Apple’s fundamentally a software company and there’s not a lot
of us left and Microsoft’s one of them.
Walt: But you may be fundamentally a software
company, but you’ve been known, at least to your customers and to most
journalists as the company that kind of pays a lot of attention to
integrating software and hardware. Microsoft has made some recent moves
to be a little more like that, obviously not in your core biggest
businesses, but with Xbox and Zune and, you know, the Surface computing
device we saw today is another example. These aren’t markets that hold
up in size to Windows or Office, but they’re some of your more recent
initiatives. Are the companies’ approaches to this merging a little or …
Steve: Alan Kay had a great quote back in the ’70s, I think. He said, “People that love software want to build their own hardware.”
Walt: Well, Bill loves software.
Steve: Oh, I can resist that.
Bill: The question is, are there markets where the
innovation and variety you get is a net positive? The negative is that
in the early stage, you really want to do the two together so you want
to do prototyping and things like that, you know, really as one thing.
And then take the phone market. We think we’re on 140 different
kinds of hardware. We think it’s beneficial to us that even if we did a
few ourselves, it wouldn’t give us what we have through those
partnerships.
Likewise, if you take the robotics market, very undeveloped. We have
over 140 tiny-volume robots using Microsoft software. And the
creativity, building toys, security things, medical things, we love the
innovation and the ecosystem that’s going to grow up–who knows when,
but we’re patient–around that and we’ll have a great asset with this
robotic software platform.
So there are things like PC, phone, and robot where the Microsoft choice is to go for the variety.
Apple, it’s great. For them, they do what works super well for them.
And there’s a few markets like Xbox 360, Zune, and this year we have
two new ones, the Surface thing and this RoundTable, which is the
meeting-room thing, where we’ll actually, through subcontractors, but
the P&L on the risk and all that for the hardware, the design is
completely a Microsoft thing.
Walt: The RoundTable: Is that something you’ve announced or were you just announcing it here?
Bill: We’ve shown prototypes of it. That’s the thing where it’s got the 360-degree …
Walt: Oh, right. It’s like Cisco has something in that market and HP too, right?
Bill: Oh, HP has a very high-end thing that’s a tiny bit like it, but anyway.
Walt: All right. Do you ever regret–was there
something you might have wanted to do differently? And maybe you feel
like this happened after you left Apple, something you might have done
differently where you could have had a much bigger market share for the
Mac?
Steve: Well, before I answer that, let me make a
comment on Bill’s answer there, which is, it’s very interesting, in the
consumer market and the enterprise market, they’re very different
spaces. And in the consumer market, at least, I think one can make a
pretty strong case that outside of Windows on PCs, it’s hard to see
other examples of the software and hardware being decoupled working
super well yet. It might in the phone space over time. It might. But
it’s not clear. It’s not clear. You can see a lot more examples of the
hardware/software coupling working well.
So I think this is one of the reasons we all, you know, come to work
every day is because nobody knows the answers to some of these
questions. And we’ll find out over the coming years and maybe both will
work fine and maybe they won’t.
Walt: Yeah.
Steve: Yeah. It’s good to try both approaches. In
some product categories–take music players–the solo design worked
better. In the PC market, the variety of designs at this stage has a
higher share.
Walt: It has a higher share? It has a lot higher share.
Steve: It’s not that much different than music players the other way around.
Walt: Is there some moment you feel like I should have done this or Apple should have done that, and we could have had …
Kara: You stuck to this idea of the hardware/software integration and it’s working very well right now.
Steve: There’s a lot of things that happened that
I’m sure I could have done better when I was at a Apple the first time
and a lot of things that happened after I left that I thought were
wrong turns, but it doesn’t matter. It really doesn’t matter and you
kind of got to let go of that stuff and we are where we are. So we tend
to look forward.
And, you know, one of the things I did when I got back to Apple 10
years ago was I gave the museum to Stanford and all the papers and all
the old machines and kind of cleared out the cobwebs and said, let’s
stop looking backwards here. It’s all about what happens tomorrow.
Because you can’t look back and say, well, gosh, you know, I wish I
hadn’t have gotten fired, I wish I was there, I wish this, I wish that.
It doesn’t matter. And so let’s go invent tomorrow rather than worrying
about what happened yesterday.
Kara: We’re going to talk a little bit tomorrow,
but let’s talk about today, the landscape of how you see the different
players in the market and how you look at what’s developing now. What
has surprised both of you since having been around for so long, and
still very active and everything, and your companies are still
critically key companies? There are many, many companies that are
becoming quite powerful. How do you look at the landscape at this
moment and what’s happening especially in the Internet space?
Steve: I think it’s super healthy right now. I
think there’s a lot of young people out there building some great
companies who want to build companies, who aren’t just interested in
starting something and selling it to one of the big guys, but who want
to build companies. And I think there’s some real exciting companies
getting built out there. Some next-generation stuff that, you know,
some of us play catch-up with and, you know, some of us find ways to
partner with and things like that, but there’s a lot of activity out
there now, wouldn’t you say?
Bill: Yeah, I’d say it’s a healthy period. The
notion of what the new form factors look like, what natural interface
can do, the ability to use the cloud, the Internet, to do part of the
task in a complementary way to the local experience, there’s a lot of
invention that the whole approach of start-ups, the existing companies
who do research, we’ll look back at this as one of the great periods of
invention.
Steve: I think so, too. There’s a lot of things
that are risky right now, which is always a good sign, you know, and
you can see through them, you can see to the other side and go, yes,
this could be huge, but there’s a period of risk that, you know,
nobody’s ever done it before.
Kara: Do you have an example?
Steve: I do, but I can’t say.
Kara: Okay.
Steve: But I can say, when you feel like that, that’s a great thing.
Kara: Right.
Steve: That’s what keeps you coming to work in the morning and it tells you there’s something exciting around the next corner.
Walt: Okay. So the two of you have certainly–you’re
involved every day with the Internet, you have Internet products, you
have a whole slew of stuff on the Internet, you have iTunes and “.Mac”
and all of that, but on another level, you’re the guys who represent
the rich client, the personal computer, the, you know, big operating
system and all that. And there is a certain school of thought–and I’m
sure it’s shared by some people in the room–that this is all migrating
to the cloud and you’ll need a fairly light piece of hardware that
won’t have to have all that investment, all the kind of stuff you guys
have done throughout your careers. So as much as people might think of
you as rivals, one way to think of you is the two guys …
Steve: We’re both dinosaurs?
Walt: Huh?
Steve: That we’re both dinosaurs?
Walt: Dinosaurs? Yeah, whatever. I can talk about that. No, seriously …
Kara: You’re betting on a system that is changing.
Walt: In five years, is the personal computer still going to be the linchpin of all this stuff?
Bill: Well, you can say that it will be predicted
that it won’t be. You know, the network computer took this over about,
whatever, five years ago we disappeared. Remember the single-function
computer? There was somebody who said that these general purpose things
are kind of a dumb idea.
Kara: Larry Ellison.
Bill: The mainstream is always under attack. The
thing that people don’t realize is that you’re going to have rich local
functionality, I mean, at least our bet, whereas you get things like
speech and vision, as you get more natural form factors, it’s a
question of using that local richness together with the richness that’s
elsewhere.
And as you look at the device, say, that’s connecting to the TV set
or connecting in the car, there are lighter-weight hardware Internet
connections, but when you come to the full screen rich, you know, edit
the document, create things, you know, I think we’re nowhere near where
we could be on making that stronger.
Steve: I’ll give you a concrete example. I love
Google Maps, use it on my computer, you know, in a browser. But when we
were doing the iPhone, we thought, wouldn’t it be great to have maps on
the iPhone? And so we called up Google and they’d done a few client
apps in Java on some phones and they had an API that we worked with
them a little on. And we ended up writing a client app for those APIs.
They would provide the backend service. And the app we were able to
write, since we’re pretty reasonable at writing apps, blows away any
Google Maps client. Just blows it away. Same set of data coming off the
server, but the experience you have using it is unbelievable. It’s way
better than the computer. And just in a completely different league
than what they’d put on phones before.
And, you know, that client is the result of a lot of technology on
the client, that client application. So when we show it to them,
they’re just blown away by how good it is. And you can’t do that stuff
in a browser.
So people are figuring out how to do more in a browser, how to get a
persistent state of things when you’re disconnected from a browser, how
do you actually run apps locally using, you know, apps written in those
technologies so they can be pretty transparent, whether you’re
connected or not.
But it’s happening fairly slowly and there’s still a lot you can do
with a rich client environment. At the same time, the hardware is
progressing to where you can run a rich client environment on lower and
lower cost devices, on lower and lower power devices. And so there’s
some pretty cool things you can do with clients.
Walt: Okay. So you’re saying rich clients still
matter, but–maybe I misunderstood you, but your example was about a
rich client that is not a personal computer as we have thought of a
personal computer.
Steve: What I’m saying is, I think the marriage of
some really great client apps with some really great cloud services is
incredibly powerful and right now, can be way more powerful than just
having a browser on the client.
Kara: You’re talking about a software company being a software and services company rather than a …
Steve: I’m saying the marriage of these services plus a more sophisticated client is a very powerful marriage.
Walt: Bill?
Bill: Yeah. Architecturally, the question is, do
you run just in the cloud and all you have downloaded locally is the
browser? And that is the same question for the phone as it is for the
full-screen device. There will always be different screen sizes because
these are, you know, the 5-inch screen does not really compete with the
20-inch screen, does not compete with the big living room screen. Those
are things that there will be some type of computing behind all of
those things, all connected to the Internet, but the idea that locally
you have the responsiveness of immediate interaction without the
latency or bandwidth limitations that you get if you try and do it all
behind, that’s what leads to the right balance.
Kara: What does that device look like in five years? What would be your principal device? Is there one or…
Walt: I could be wrong, I think you carry a tablet with you, right?
Bill: Right.
Walt: Which has not necessarily stormed the world yet.
Bill: Yeah. This is like Windows 1992, I think. That is, I’m unrepentant on my belief.
Walt: Okay. But to go back to Kara’s point, what
would you each imagine that you would carry as your principal, let’s
say, thing to do the Web and…
Kara: I mean, Jeff Hawkins showed a very lightweight device.
Walt: Yeah. I don’t know if you guys saw, but Jeff
Hawkins showed a Linux-based, very small–I think he called it a
companion to a smart phone today.
Kara: A phone companion, which sounded a little naughty.
Walt: It doesn’t matter, you weren’t there, but
what would you think you each would be–I assume you carry a tablet PC.
I don’t know what brand it is. Maybe you change them up, I don’t know.
You obviously carry a MacBook Pro, I would guess, or a MacBook.
Steve: Yeah. Well, and an iPhone.
Walt: And an iPhone?
Kara: You have one?
Steve: I do.
Kara: Right here?
Steve: Yes.
Walt: Well, he has one. He took it out before. Really.
Kara: Sorry.
Walt: He flashed his iPhone earlier today.
Kara: Anyway, go ahead. So what is your device? What’s the device that we should be carrying?
Walt: What’s your device in five years that you rely on the most?
Bill: I don’t think you’ll have one device. I think
you’ll have a full-screen device that you can carry around and you’ll
do dramatically more reading off of that.
Kara: Light.
Bill: Yeah. I mean, I believe in the tablet form
factor. I think you’ll have voice. I think you’ll have ink. You’ll have
some way of having a hardware keyboard and some settings for that. And
then you’ll have the device that fits in your pocket, which the whole
notion of how much function should you combine in there, you know,
there’s navigation computers, there’s media, there’s phone. Technology
is letting us put more things in there, but then again, you really want
to tune it so people know what they expect. So there’s quite a bit of
experimentation in that pocket-size device. But I think those are
natural form factors and that we’ll have the evolution of the portable
machine. And the evolution of the phone will both be extremely high
volume, complementary–that is, if you own one, you’re more likely to
own the other.
Kara: And then at home, you’d have a setup that they all plug into?
Bill: Well, home, you’ll have your living room,
which is your 10-foot experience, and that’s connected up to the
Internet and there you’ll have gaming and entertainment and there’s a
lot of experimentation in terms of what content looks like in that
world. And then in your den, you’ll have something a lot like you have
at your desk at work. You know, the view is that every horizontal and
vertical surface will have a projector so you can put information, you
know, your desk can be a surface that you can sit and manipulate things.
Walt: Can I please have a room in my house that doesn’t have a screen and a projector in it?
Bill: You bet.
Walt: Thanks.
Bill: The bathroom.
Walt: Well…
Kara: That’s the perfect place for it, actually.
Walt: So what’s your five-year outlook at the devices you’ll carry?
Steve: You know, it’s interesting. The PC has
proved to be very resilient because, as Bill said earlier, I mean, the
death of the PC has been predicted every few years.
Walt: And here when you’re saying PC, you mean personal computer in general, not just Windows PCs?
Steve: I mean, personal computer in general.
Walt: Yeah, okay.
Steve: And, you know, there was the age of
productivity, if you will, you know, the spreadsheets and word
processors and that kind of got the whole industry moving. And it kind
of plateaued for a while and was getting a little stale and then the
Internet came along and everybody needed more powerful computers to get
on the Internet, browsers came along, and it was this whole Internet
age that came along, access to the Internet. And then some number of
years ago, you could start to see that the PC that was taken for
granted, things had kind of plateaued a little bit, innovation-wise, at
least. And then I think this whole notion of the PC–we called it the
digital hub, but you can call it anything you want, sort of the
multimedia center of the house, started to take off with digital
cameras and digital camcorders and sharing things over the Internet and
kind of needing a repository for all that stuff and it was reborn again
as sort of the hub of your digital life.
And you can sort of see that there’s something starting again. It’s
not clear exactly what it is, but it will be the PC maybe used a little
more tightly coupled with some backend Internet services and some
things like that. And, of course, PCs are going mobile in an ever
greater degree.
So I think the PC is going to continue. This general purpose device
is going to continue to be with us and morph with us, whether it’s a
tablet or a notebook or, you know, a big curved desktop that you have
at your house or whatever it might be. So I think that’ll be something
that most people have, at least in this society. In others, maybe not,
but certainly in this one.
But then there’s an explosion that’s starting to happen in what you
call post-PC devices, right? You can call the iPod one of them. There’s
a lot of things that are not…
Walt: You can get into trouble for using that term. I want you to know that.
Steve: What?
Walt: I’m kidding. Post-PC devices.
Steve: Why?
Walt: People write letters to the editor, they complain about it. Anyway, go ahead.
Steve: Okay. Well, anyway, I think there’s just a
category of devices that aren’t as general purpose, that are really
more focused on specific functions, whether they’re phones or iPods or
Zunes or what have you. And I think that category of devices is going
to continue to be very innovative and we’re going to see lots of them.
Kara: Give me an example of what that would be.
Steve: Well, an iPod as a post-PC…
Kara: Well, yeah.
Steve: A phone as a post-PC device.
Walt: Is the iPhone and some of these other smart
phones–and I know you believe that the iPhone is much better than these
other smart phones at the moment, but are these things–aren’t they
really just computers in a different form factor? I mean, when we use
the word phone, it sounds like…
Steve: We’re getting to the point where
everything’s a computer in a different form factor. So what, right? So
what if it’s built with a computer inside it? It doesn’t matter. It’s,
what is it? How do you use it? You know, how does the consumer approach
it? And so who cares what’s inside it anymore?
Walt: So what are the core functions of the device
formerly known as the cellphone, whatever we want to call it? The
pocket device. What would you say the core functions, like, five years
out, what are the core functions of that pocket device?
Bill: How quickly all these things that have been
somewhat specialized, the navigation device, the digital wallet, the
phone, the camera, the video camera, how quickly those all come
together, it’s hard to chart out. But eventually, you’ll be able to
pick something that has the capability to do every one of those things.
And yet, given the small size, you still won’t want to edit your
homework or edit a movie on the screen of that size. And so you’ll have
something else that lets you do the reading and editing and those
things. Now, if we could ever get a screen that would just roll out
like a scroll, you know, then you might be able to have the device that
did everything.
Walt: You know, in the very first D conference, we had these guys from E Ink here.
Kara: Yeah.
Walt: I’m sure you’ve both talked to them. They
were talking about that. That was five years ago. It’s always five
years out. So do you…
Bill: Yeah. There’s some advances in projection
technology that are more likely to be delivered, I think, than the
flexible material guys, but it’s not even on the horizon, no matter
which of the two approaches are pursued.
Kara: And any kind of quality.
Bill: We have some Microsoft research people who
work on [that] and there’s a lot of investment, but it’s at least in
the five-year time frame.
Walt: You, five years from now, what’s going to be on that pocket device?
Steve: I don’t know. And the reason I don’t know is
because I wouldn’t have thought that there would have been maps on it
five years ago, but something comes along, gets really popular, people
love it, get used to it, you want it on there.
So people are inventing things constantly and I think the art of it
is balancing what’s on there and what’s not on there, is the editing
function. And clearly, most things you carry with you are
communications devices. You want to do some entertainment with them as
well, but they’re primarily communications devices and that’s what
they’re going to be.
Kara: Outside the computing area, what are the
exciting areas in the Internet space at all that you’re looking at
that’s interesting to each of your companies and in general for you?
Any social networking, any kind of the Wikis, those kind of things,
things we’ve talked about in the past couple–today, essentially?
Steve: You know, we’re working on some things that I can’t talk about, but…
Kara: Again.
Steve: Again, yeah.
Kara: It’s very beautiful, I think.
Steve: There used to be a saying, isn’t it at Apple …
Walt: Going to blow us away, though, when you can talk about it.
Kara: Blow us away, wow, it’s great.
Steve: There used to be a saying at Apple, isn’t it funny, a ship that leaks from the top. So the…
Kara: That’s kind of like a sweater without sleeves is a vest. I don’t get that.
Steve: That was what they used to say about me when I was in my 20s.
Walt: Okay.
Steve: There’s a zillion interesting things going
on on the Internet. The most interesting things to me are these
incredible new services that people are bringing up and…
Kara: Surrounding entertainment or…
Steve: There’s a lot of them surrounding
entertainment, but there’s a lot of them that have to do with just sort
of figuring how to navigate through life a little more efficiently. And
I think, you know, it’s really great when you show somebody something
and you don’t have to convince them they have a problem this solves.
They know they have a problem, you can show them something, they go,
oh, my God, I need this. And I think you’re going to see a lot of
things like that happen over the next year or two.
Walt: You obviously have a very large Internet
business with iTunes and you sell a lot of stuff in the Apple Store,
but, you know, you were early with this idea that when you bought a
computer from Apple, you had this kind of Internet service back end,
and it was called “.Mac”. And I think a lot of people feel you haven’t
developed it very much.
Steve: I couldn’t agree with you more, and we’ll make up for lost time in the near future.
Walt: And in your case, you obviously have huge
things like Hotmail, for instance, which is, I guess–and Windows
Messenger, which are both widely used and I don’t even know how many
users.
Kara: A gazillion.
Walt: Huge numbers. But on the other hand, as Steve
Ballmer was talking about today, you know, other people have much
stronger positions in things like search and other parts of the
Internet. So are you guys, because you are the personal computer
companies that are, you know, best associated with that, not as nimble
as some of these competitors at this point? Do you worry about not
being as nimble, both of you? I mean, obviously, Microsoft’s a much
bigger company, but you’re a big company, Steve, Apple is. Do you worry
about not being as nimble as somebody sitting out there with, you know,
the kind of ten employees that you guys had in 1977?
Bill: Well, there’s always going to be great new
things that come out of other companies, and you want to be in a
position to benefit from those, to have those inventions drive demand
for Windows and personal computers and then some of those upstream
things you want to participate in. I hope Steve mentioned we are going
to participate in search, hopefully to a higher degree in the future
than at present.
Walt: He did mention that, yeah.
Bill: So we’ll see what we can do there. A lot of
the applications are more specialized so they’re not areas we’ll go
into. You know, take what can happen with education now that video is
mainstream and all these tools that let you do rich interactions are
very mainstream. I’m very excited about that. You know, the idea of
empowerment goes back to the very beginning of our industry and some of
those dreams that this would be used by students or that teachers could
get better and learn from each other in these new ways, we’re just at
the threshold where some of those things can happen. And, yes, our
companies can contribute to that, but as a whole, it’s the ecosystem
jumping on and building on each other where you can finally say finally
technology did something for education.
Steve: See, I look at this a little bit
differently, which is, we’re not trying to do a lot of this stuff
because it’s not what we do. We don’t think one company can do
everything. So you’ve got to partner with people that are really good
at stuff. Like, we’re not, I mean, maybe Microsoft is great at search.
We’re not. We’re not trying to be great at search so we partner with
people that are great at search. And we don’t know how to do maps on
the back end. We know how to do the best maps client in the world, but
we don’t know how to do the back end so we partner with people that
know how to do the back end. And what we want to do is be that
consumer’s device and that consumer’s experience wrapped around all
this information and things we can deliver to them in a wonderful user
interface, in a coherent product.
And so in some cases, you know, we have to do more work than others.
You know, in the case of iTunes, there wasn’t a music delivery service
that was any good and we had to do one, so we’ll do one. But in other
cases, there’s companies doing a way better job because we’re not as
good at this stuff as other people are and we’d love to partner with
them and so, you know, we selectively do that. And I think it’s really
hard for one company to do everything. Life’s complex.
Kara: Let’s talk about entertainment.
Entertainment’s important to both your companies. For yours with music
right now and as you get into Apple TV. Microsoft has been within the
Hollywood era. Where do you see that going in the era of YouTube? We’ve
had a couple of network people here talking about changes that are
happening in Hollywood and everything else. What is happening now to
entertainment delivery and where do you all play? Because you’ll be the
delivery mechanism in one way or the other for most people.
Bill: Well, the big milestone is where the delivery
platform is the Internet and so you bring the richness and the
interactivity. I think you can get a little bit of a glimpse of the
future of TV more from looking at community-type things like Xbox Live,
where people are talking to each other, finding friends, you know,
watching things together, talking about those things.
As you map that onto genres like educational shows or sports shows
or watching the Olympics, the elections, that ability to navigate
becomes very, very powerful. And we’re not in entertainment. Yes, we do
Halo, which is this big video game, but by and large, we’re a platform
and so it’s the tough software things, whether it’s the speech or the
ink or the deep graphics, that’s where things that take 10 years to get
done, the IPTV stuff, the foundation there, you know, took ten years to
get it done. Now it’s finally coming to fruition and we have people
like AT&T betting their company on putting that together.
So we’re just at the start of having a scale-entertainment delivery
vehicle, both through PCs, unfortunately not connected up to the TV set
in most cases, but that’s a point of innovation, and now things like
IPTV and Xbox that are connected up in the living room.
Walt: Bill, you weren’t here, but Steve showed a
new function of Apple TV that brings YouTube directly to the TV. Is
there going to be more of that from you? Do you see yourself the way
Bill says, as an enabler of entertainment or, I mean, putting aside
your Disney role, but your Apple role?
Steve: I mean, I think people want to enjoy their
entertainment when they want it and how they want it, on the device
that they want it on. So ultimately, that’s going to drive the
entertainment companies into all sorts of different business models.
And that’s a good thing. I mean, if you’re a content company, that’s a
great thing. More people wanting to, you know, enjoy your content more
often in more different ways, that’s why you’re in business, but the
transitions are hard sometimes.
And, you know, the music industry, it turned out that the Internet
got fast enough to download songs pretty easily. There was no legal
alternative and maybe they made some bad choices in how they reacted to
that, but, you know, they’re still trying to make the transition to a
very different way of doing business, or ways of doing business while
they’re under attack from piracy. And we can all highlight some of the
mistakes that have been made, but, you know, still, it’s a tough job.
And Hollywood, I think, you know, has watched what’s happened in
music, learned some things to do, some things not to do, but, you know,
they’re still trying to map this out. How do they make some of these
transitions, some new business models, different platforms, allowing
their customers way more freedom on when they want to watch stuff and
how they want to watch it. And I think there’s a tremendous amount of
experimentation and thought going on that’s going to be good. It’s
going to be really good if you’re a content owner.
Walt: Can I ask about the user interface of the
personal computer for a minute? Vista has just come out, which is your
best version of Windows you’ve done, has some UI improvements in it.
You’re about to do yet another version of the Mac OS called Leopard in
the fall, which, from what you’ve shown publicly at least so far, has
some improvements. But fundamentally, these are still the kind of file
icon, folder icon, dropdown menu. I know I’m minimizing. There’s a lot
of other things. There’s gadgets and widgets and all kinds of other
cool things in there now, but, you know, you can see that it’s still
all built on what you started with, with what Xerox did research on.
In the offing in the next four or five years, is it possible there’s
a new paradigm for organizing the user interface of the personal
computer? Let’s leave cellphones and things out for a minute, but just
the personal computer. Bill?
Bill: One of the things that’s been anticipated for
a long time is when 3D comes into that interface. And there was a lot
of experimentation, sites on the Internet where you’d kind of walk
around and meet people, but in fact, the richness, the speed, it just
didn’t sustain itself. Now we’re starting to see with some of the
mapping stuff, a few of the sites, that the quality of that graphics,
the tools and things, are getting to the point where 3D can really come
in. So I’d definitely say that when you go to a store, bookstore,
you’ll be able to see the books lined up, you know, the way you might
be interested in or lined up the way they are in the real store.
So 3D is a way of organizing things, particularly as we’re getting
much more media information on the computer, a lot more choices, a lot
more navigation than we’ve ever had before. And we can take that into
this communications world where the PC is playing a much more central
role, kind of taking over what was the PBX, sort of one of the last
mainframes in the business environment. That will be a big change that
will come to it. And as we get natural input, that will cause a change.
Walt: And what about this multi-touch stuff? It’s
really interesting. Obviously, Steve showed some of it on the iPhone
when he introduced the iPhone. Steve Ballmer today showed a bunch of it
with the Surface computing device. It happens, although it’s not part
of our program, that HP, which is a sponsor of this conference, has a
multi-touch sort of display over here out in the foyer. Will this make
its way into…
Kara: Sort of the Minority Report, this kind of thing.
Walt: Yeah. Will this make its way into–maybe you
call it direct manipulation of objects with your hands and your
fingers. Will this make its way into mainstream, let’s say, laptop
computers as a new UI or an additional part of the UI or is that just a
thing for specialized devices?
Bill: Well, go beyond the laptop. Vision. Software
is doing vision and so, you know, imagine a game machine where you’re
just going to pick up the bat and swing it or the tennis racket and
swing it.
Walt: We have one of those.
Kara: Yeah. Wii.
Walt: Well, the Wii.
Bill: No, that’s not it. You can’t pick up your tennis racket…
Kara: Oh, your tennis racket.
Walt: Oh, I see what you mean, yeah.
Bill: And swing it.
Kara: Right.
Bill: You can’t sit there with your friends and do
those natural things. That’s a 3D positional device. This is video
recognition. This is a camera seeing what’s going on. And, you know, in
the meetings, like you’re on a video conference, you don’t know who’s
speaking, you know, they’re audio only, things like that. The camera
will be ubiquitous. Now, of course, we have to design it in a way that
people’s expectations about privacy are handled appropriately, but
software can do vision and it can do it very, very inexpensively. And
that means this stuff becomes pervasive. You don’t just talk about it
being in a laptop device. You talk about it being part of the meeting
room or the living room or…
Walt: But on the laptop, the way that–and, you
know, maybe what we have is great and we don’t need any new big radical
change, but when I turn on my laptop, whether it’s my Vista laptop or
my Mac laptop, you know, there have been improvements, but it’s a lot
like it was 10 years ago. It’s much better, the graphics are better and
all that.
Kara: We talked about that radical change to happen for both your companies.
Walt: But, you know, you have the mouse, you have
the icons, you move around, you have the–I mean, and you talked about
what a big gamble it was in ‘84 to do that and then the follow on with
Windows. We still essentially have that approach and I’m just wondering
is that going to change.
Bill: Touch, ink, speech, vision, those things come
in, but they don’t come in as a radical substitute. I think you’re also
underestimating the degree of evolution. Because you’ve lived with it
year by year, you know, say we’d sent you away for 10 years and you
came back and you said, wow, there’s a search paradigm and that’s more
at the center of how you’d find these things. There’s tagging. That’s
more at the center of how you’d find these things. You know, the
evolution is a very good thing. In fact, even in that evolution, the
stuff we did with Office, there’s this balance you strike where, when
you make a change–in that case, the ribbon–you’re going to have some
users who feel like, oh, jeez, I have to spend a little bit of time to
be brought along to that. You know, but there has been good evolution,
but these natural interface things are the revolutionary change and
they will be very revolutionary. That, together with the 3D that I
talked about.
Kara: Steve? I know you’re working on something, it’s going to be beautiful, we’ll see it soon.
Walt: And you can’t talk about it.
Steve: Yeah.
Walt: Bill discusses all his secret plans. You don’t discuss any.
Steve: I know, it’s not fair. But I think the
question is a very simple one, which is how much of the really
revolutionary things people are going to do in the next five years are
done on the PCs or how much of it is really focused on the post-PC
devices. And there’s a real temptation to focus it on the post-PC
devices because it’s a clean slate and because they’re more focused
devices and because, you know, they don’t have the legacy of these
zillions of apps that have to run in zillions of markets.
And so I think there’s going to be tremendous revolution, you know,
in the experiences of the post-PC devices. Now, the question is how
much to do in the PCs. And I think I’m sure Microsoft is–we’re working
on some really cool stuff, but some of it has to be tempered a little
bit because you do have, you know, these tens of millions, in our case,
or hundreds of millions in Bill’s case, users that are familiar with
something that, you know, they don’t want a car with six wheels. They
like the car with four wheels. They don’t want to drive with a
joystick. They like the steering wheel.
And so, you know, you have to, as Bill was saying, in some cases, you
have to augment what exists there and in some cases, you can replace
things. But I think the radical rethinking of things is going to happen
in a lot of these post-PC devices.
Kara: I’m going to ask a more personal question. We
have just a minute before we’re going to open up for questions. What’s
the greatest–I’m not going to call this a Barbara Walters moment and
ask you what tree you’d like to be, but…
Walt: She would love to be Barbara Walters, let me just tell you.
Kara: No, I would not. What’s the greatest misunderstanding…
Steve: Ding.
Kara: Ding, right. Thank you, Steve. About your
relationship. I mean, you’re obviously going to go down in
history–history books already say it kind of thing. But what’s the
greatest misunderstanding in your relationship and about each other?
What would you say would be–this idea of cat fight? Which one of the
many?
Steve: We’ve kept our marriage secret for over a decade now.
Kara: Canada. That trip to Canada.
[Laughter and applause]
Bill: I don’t think either of us have anything to
complain about, in general. And I know that the projects, like the Mac
project, was just an incredible thing, a fun thing where we were taking
a risk. We did look a lot younger in that video.
Steve: We did.
Kara: You looked 12 in the first one.
Bill: That’s how I try and look.
Steve: He was 12.
Bill: But, no, it’s been fun to work together. I
actually kind of miss some of the people who aren’t around anymore. You
know, people come and go in this industry. It’s nice when somebody
sticks around and they have some context of all the things that have
worked and not worked. The industry gets all crazy about some new
thing, you know, like, there’s always this paradigm of the company
that’s successful is going to go away and stuff like that. It’s nice to
have people seeing the waves and waves of that and yet, when it
counted, to take the risk to bring in something new.
Walt: One last question and then we’ll go to the audience.
Kara: Oh, no, he didn’t answer us.
Walt: Sorry, what?
Steve: I haven’t answered.
Walt: Oh, I’m sorry.
Kara: He only talked about his secret gay marriage so…
Walt: Oh, I thought that was your answer.
Steve: No, that wasn’t my answer. You know, when
Bill and I first met each other and worked together in the early days,
generally, we were both the youngest guys in the room, right?
Individually or together. I’m about six months older than he is, but
roughly the same age. And now when we’re working at our respective
companies, I don’t know about you, but I’m the oldest guy in the room
most of the time. And that’s why I love being here.
Walt: Happy to oblige. Happy to oblige.
Steve: And, you know, I think of most things in
life as either a Bob Dylan or a Beatles song, but there’s that one line
in that one Beatles song, “you and I have memories longer than the road
that stretches out ahead.” And that’s clearly true here.
Kara: Oh, sweet.
Walt: Oh, you know what? I think we should end it there. Let’s just end it there.
Kara: I have a little tear right here.
Walt: Thank you. Thank you very much.
Kara: Thank you so much.
[Applause]
Kara: Wow. Okay. So some audience questions, please.
Walt: Questions. Can we have some lights? Roger.
Roger: Roger McNamee from Elevation Partners. Hey,
guys, that was incredible. Thank you very much. We’ve got a big
election coming up next year and I’m curious if there are any issues
that you see in Silicon Valley that we all ought to be focused on
communicating effectively to the next potential president of the United
States. That is, any common ground that we share. Because it’s weird,
you don’t actually hear any issues that people are talking about right
now and I’m curious if you guys have any in mind.
Walt: Bill?
Bill: Well, certainly, education is one that I’d put at the top of the list.
Roger: Are there technological solutions right now that they could do something about or is that just sort of, like…
Bill: No. Technology is going to be helpful and
more and more, but the way that teachers are measured and made
excellent, the way that the high schools are designed, the expectations
they have, it’s not just a pure technology thing. It’s more an
institutional practice where the opportunity is. You know, there should
be a lot of debate about the different ways of doing that.
Walt: Steve?
Steve: Boy, we’ve got some pretty big problems and
I think most of them are much bigger than anything Silicon Valley can
contribute right now to solve. So hopefully some of those will get
solved. I also think we underestimate how much all of our industry
depends on stability. We’ve enjoyed, you know, a long period of
stability and we’ve been able to focus on technology and growing our
businesses and stuff and I think we take that for granted sometimes.
One of the more interesting areas that we all suffer from, of
course, is in the area of energy dependency. And there’s a lot of work
going on, I know a lot of investing going on, anyway, I don’t know if
the results are there, but a lot of investing going on in alternative
energy and maybe Silicon Valley can play a small role in some of that
stuff, too.
Kara: Are you guys investing in that area personally or…
Bill: Some.
Kara: Which might be a lot from you.
Bill: A billion here or there.
Walt: Steve, are you investing in that area?
Steve: No.
Kara: Just a Prius?
Steve: Yeah, just appreciating.
Walt: Over there.
Don: Hi. Don Eklund, Sony Pictures. My question is
really, at what point is there too much diversity? It was talked about
a few times in the discussion, the fact that now microprocessors are
very low cost, memory’s low cost, software is ubiquitous, but, my life
has been made better by standards, like coding standards, network
standards. And it seems like we’re reaching a point where diversity is
starting to take hold to a point where we’re not going to be able to
have the kinds of convergence devices that I think everyone would
really be able to appreciate. And I’m wondering, you know, is this
going to be, like, health care or mass transit where you just can never
put it back in the bottle again? And I’d like to get your perspective
on that, if there’s still an opportunity to have some grand convergence
devices that can really simplify people’s lives and enrich their lives.
Walt: Steve?
Steve: Well, I think Bill and I would agree that we
can get it down to two. No, I think it’s hard to limit imagination and
innovation. I think there’s always going to be a bunch of new, great
things. And I think that’s part of what we put up with to get the
innovation. We put up with a little bit of aggravation to get the
innovation.
Bill: And I think the marketplace is awfully good at allowing diversity when it should and then getting rid of it when it shouldn’t.
Steve: And then letting it come back sometimes.
Bill: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, in terms of standards and
things. I mean, the Internet standards have been incredibly powerful,
you know, video formats, things like this. And so I don’t see things
that are going to really hold back a convergence device. You know,
sure, there’s a lot of wireless approaches, but that’s pretty healthy
right now. They each have various merits. A few of them will end up
overlapping the other ones and kill the other ones out, but I think the
industry’s done very well at latching onto standards for the things
that there were no longer any innovation in and then focusing on the
places where it wasn’t clear which approach was best.
Walt: Jesse?
Jesse: Hi. I’m Jesse Kornbluth, HeadButler.com. But
you’re not the youngest guys in the room anymore, it’s perhaps
appropriate to ask you a question about legacy, each of you. Bill, even
your harshest critic would have to admit that your philanthropy work
is, you know, planet-shaking, incredible, and could be, if you make it,
a second act so amazing that it would dwarf what you’ve actually done
at Microsoft.
[Applause]
If you had to choose a legacy, what would it be? And Steve, do you
look at Bill and you think, gee, that guy is so lucky he had a company
so rich with talent that he didn’t have to personally come in every day
and save it and, you know, I wish I had the opportunity?
Kara: Okay. He’s not going to answer that one.
Walt: Bill?
Bill: Well, the most important work I got a chance
to be involved in, no matter what I do, is the personal computer. You
know, that’s what I grew up, in my teens, my 20s, my 30s, you know, I
even knew not to get married until later because I was so obsessed with
it. That’s my life’s work. And it’s lucky for me that some of the
skills and resources–but I put skills first–that I was able to develop
through those experiences can be applied to the benefit of the people
who haven’t had technology, including medicine, working for them. So
it’s an incredible blessing to have two things like that. But the thing
that I’ll, you know, if you look inside my brain, it’s filled with
software and, you know, the magic of software and the belief in
software and, you know, that’s not going to change.
Steve: So your question was about whether I wish I didn’t have to go into Apple every day?
Jesse: No, if you envied Bill a bit, this second act that he has.
Steve: Oh, no. I think the world’s…
Kara: You want to do anything else.
Steve: I think the world’s a better place because
Bill realized that his goal isn’t to be the richest guy in the
cemetery, right? That’s a good thing and so he’s doing a lot of good
with the money that he made.
You know, I’m sure Bill was like me in this way. I mean, I grew up
fairly middle-class, lower middle-class, and I never really cared much
about money. And Apple was so successful early on in life that I was
very lucky that I didn’t have to care about money then. And so I’ve
been able to focus on work and then later on, my family.
And I sort of look at us as two of the luckiest guys on the planet
because we found what we loved to do and we were at the right place at
the right time and we’ve gotten to go to work every day with super
bright people for 30 years and do what we love doing.
And so it’s hard to be happier than that. You know, your family and
that. What more can you ask for? And so I don’t think about legacy
much. I just think about being able to get up every day and go in and
hang around these great people and hopefully create something that
other people will love as much as we do. And if we can do that, that’s
great.
Walt: Yeah.
Rob: Thanks, Steve and Bill. Rob Killion, here with
my business partner. We’ve got a 100-person Internet media business.
I’m wondering what would be the single most valuable piece of advice
you’d give us to even attempt to create some of the value that you guys
have done in both your very impressive companies.
Bill: Well, I think actually–it may be in both
cases–correct me if I’m wrong–the excitement wasn’t really seeing the
economic value. You know, even when we wrote down at Microsoft in 1975,
“a computer on every desk and in every home,” we didn’t realize, oh,
we’ll have to be a big company. Every time, I thought, “Oh, God, can we
double in size?” Jeez, can we manage that many people? Will that feel
fun still? You know, and so every doubling was, like, okay, this is the
last one. And so the economic thing wasn’t at the forefront. The idea
of being at the forefront and seeing new things and things we wanted to
do and being able to bring in different people who were fun to work
with eventually with a pretty broad set of skills and figuring out how
to get those people those broad skills to work well together has been
one of the greatest challenges. You know, I made more of my mistakes in
that area maybe than anywhere, but, you know, eventually getting some
of those teams to work very well together. So, you know, I think it’s a
lot about the people and the passion. And it’s amazing that the
business worked out the way that it did.
Steve: Yeah. People say you have to have a lot of
passion for what you’re doing and it’s totally true. And the reason is
because it’s so hard that if you don’t, any rational person would give
up. It’s really hard. And you have to do it over a sustained period of
time. So if you don’t love it, if you’re not having fun doing it, you
don’t really love it, you’re going to give up. And that’s what happens
to most people, actually. If you really look at the ones that ended up,
you know, being “successful” in the eyes of society and the ones that
didn’t, oftentimes, it’s the ones [who] were successful loved what they
did so they could persevere, you know, when it got really tough. And
the ones that didn’t love it quit because they’re sane, right? Who
would want to put up with this stuff if you don’t love it?
So it’s a lot of hard work and it’s a lot of worrying constantly and
if you don’t love it, you’re going to fail. So you’ve got to love it
and you’ve got to have passion and I think that’s the high-order bit.
The second thing is, you’ve got to be a really good talent scout
because no matter how smart you are, you need a team of great people
and you’ve got to figure out how to size people up fairly quickly, make
decisions without knowing people too well and hire them and, you know,
see how you do and refine your intuition and be able to help, you know,
build an organization that can eventually just, you know, build itself
because you need great people around you.
Walt: Lise.
Lise: Lise Buyer. Question, I guess it’s historical
curiosity. You approached the same opportunity so very differently.
What did you learn about running your own business that you wished you
had thought of sooner or thought of first by watching the other guy?
Bill: Well, I’d give a lot to have Steve’s taste. [laughter]
He has natural–it’s not a joke at all. I think in terms of intuitive
taste, both for people and products, you know, we sat in Mac product
reviews where there were questions about software choices, how things
would be done that I viewed as an engineering question, you know, and
that’s just how my mind works. And I’d see Steve make the decision
based on a sense of people and product that, you know, is even hard for
me to explain. The way he does things is just different and, you know,
I think it’s magical. And in that case, wow.
Steve: You know, because Woz and I started the
company based on doing the whole banana, we weren’t so good at
partnering with people. And, you know, actually, the funny thing is,
Microsoft’s one of the few companies we were able to partner with that
actually worked for both companies. And we weren’t so good at that,
where Bill and Microsoft were really good at it because they didn’t
make the whole thing in the early days and they learned how to partner
with people really well.
And I think if Apple could have had a little more of that in its
DNA, it would have served it extremely well. And I don’t think Apple
learned that until, you know, a few decades later.
Walt: Over here.
Charlie: Yeah, hi. Charlie Brenner from Fidelity
Investments. In our financial services industry, we are focusing very
strongly on aging and retiring baby-boomers, a huge demographic.
Steve: We’re not that old yet.
Charlie: No, I wasn’t– The question is different
from what it sounds like it’s going to be here. But most of the
innovation that we see coming from computer and Internet companies is
kind of youth-oriented. And I’m just wondering if there are activities
going on in your companies acknowledging what’s going to be happening
generationally.
Steve: Oh, not true. I’ll give you one example. So
we started building in video cameras into almost all our computers a
few years ago. And the response by people of all ages, but in
particular seniors, has been off the charts because they’re buying
these things now and they’re buying them for their grandkids, their
sons and daughters with their grandkids so they can stay in touch with
their grandkids. And they’re videoconferencing more than younger people
are. And it’s incredible what this has done. So that’s just one simple
example, but there’s, like, dozens of them that have clicked with, you
know, seniors that are living independently that want to stay in touch
with extended families and do other things like that.
Bill: Yeah, I think it’s a very good point, when
you look at the size of the market. And that’s partly why it’s great
that there are all these companies out there who can see, okay, what
would you do for seniors? I think natural user interface is
particularly applicable here because the keyboard, you know, we’re sort
of warped in that we grew up using the keyboard and so it’s extremely
natural to us, but things like–and that’s partly why when we showed the
Surface computer, I showed it privately to a bunch of CEOs a couple
weeks ago, I was kind of stunned by how blown away they were. But their
ease of navigation is just not the same. And when they saw that, the
idea that they could organize their photo album, it meant more to them
than it did to me.
Steve: I’ll give you another example. We’ve got a
little shy of 200 retail stores now. And one of the things that stores
are doing is personal training now. It’s called one-to-one. And we are
up to now a run rate of a million personal training sessions–they last
an hour–per year. A million per year.
Walt: You only started a little while ago, right?
Steve: Yeah, we started about a year ago and we’re
up to a million training sessions per year run rate now. And a lot of
those folks–some of them, anyway, many of them–are seniors. And they’re
coming in and they’re spending an hour learning how to use Office and
they’re spending an hour learning how to video-conference. They can
basically come in as much as they want and they can schedule these
things throughout a year and they pay $99, I think, a year for it. And
it’s been great.
Kara: Last question.
Walt: Now the last question over there.
Unidentified male:We all share our common
science-fiction experience of, you know, the metaverse or the matrix
where we all could communicate without being in the same place. And by
the way, thank you both for providing us the best platforms so far to
go to chat rooms or to all go to a MySpace. It’s a far cry from these
things that we see on Star Trek at the holodeck. What kinds of things
can you imagine that are partway there that could be much better than
the three-window iChat that we might see in the next five or 10 years?
Bill: Well, I think Steve’s going to announce his transporter.
Steve: I want Star Trek. Just give me Star Trek.
Bill: No, I think short of the transporter, most
things you see in science fiction are, in the next decade, the kinds of
things you’ll see. The virtual presence, the virtual worlds that both
represent what’s going on in the real world and represent whatever
people are interested in. This movement in space as a way of
interacting with the machine. I think the deep investments that have
been made at the research level will pay off with these things in the
next 10 years.
Walt: Steve?
Steve: I don’t know. And that’s what makes it
exciting to go into work every day, because there’s–as we talked about
earlier, this is an extraordinarily exciting time in the industry, and
lots of new stuff happening. So, you know, I can’t even begin to think
what it’s going to be like 10 years from now.
Walt: Thank you so much.
Kara: Thank you so much.
[Applause]
Kara: Thank you so much. That was great.
Walt: That’s great. Thank you for being here.
댓글을 달아 주세요